Donald Rumsfeld Known And Unknown Pdf
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This saying is typically used to conduct risk management analysis by splitting the upcoming obstacles into 3 categories:.
- Known and Unknown: A Memoir
- Cognitive Knowledge
- Knowns and unknowns
- Classification of Unknowns and Risk Scenarios
Known and Unknown: A Memoir
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. We geophysicists and geologists are generally not eager to compare ourselves with politicians. We are, after all, scientists who come to an understanding of nature from evidence of what is true rather from what we want to be true. In both the political and geophysical situations, definite conclusions need to be made despite the lack of hard and fast evidence.
Furthermore, in both cases the lack of definitive evidence is no reason for not clinging strongly to belief in the truth of the conclusions. Land seismic exploration can be a frustratingly inaccurate science. The seismic data is acquired with sources and receivers on the surface of the earth so the irregular, inhomogeneous, unconsolidated near-surface layers distort the wavefields going down from the sources as well as the reflected wavefields coming up to the receivers. The near-surface of the earth has a serious blurring effect on the image of the targets at depth that we really want to resolve clearly.
This we know. This is a known known. Decades-old surface-consistent methods allow the processor to turn these unknowns into knowns. However, the assumptions built into these methods are highly simplistic and in a strict sense are known to be false. As scientists, we need to be skeptical about our results in order not to fall into traps of irrational thinking. For example, we should not conclude that a surface-consistent solution is correct just because it makes the data look better. There are many ways to make the data look better for the wrong reasons.
So instead of being proud of our accomplishments, perhaps we are better off being skeptical that our accomplishments are as great as we think they are. There can always be unknown unknowns. There is a fourth category that Rumsfield did not mention: unknown knowns. We all have biases against evidence that comes in conflict with our previously held beliefs.
This is a natural tendency that protects us from the charlatans out there who try to sell us falsehoods. How, for example, can we possibly get more frequency bandwidth out of the earth than what we put in?
Using examples from land exploration seismology I will attempt to explain how simple concepts can provide surprising challenges to how we think and test our integrity as scientists. The concepts are general enough to be of interest of any geoscientist, regardless of background. Peter Cary has B. He was an associate editor seismic processing of Geophysics from One of his specialities is processing and writing software for multicomponent seismic data.
Etris, Nick J. Crabtree and Jan Dewar Errors and Omissions A large volume of data is being converted to make this online archive. If you notice any problems with an article examples: incorrect or missing figures, issue with rendering of formulas etc. The CSEG does not endorse or warrant the information printed. Share This Article. Crabtree and Jan Dewar. Home Articles Interviews Editions Blog. Some rights reserved.
Feb 08, Minutes Buy. Few Americans have spent more time near the center of power than Donald Rumsfeld, whose widely commented-on memoir offers many previously undisclosed details about his service with four U. We follow his rise from a middle-class childhood to the Navy to a seat in the U. Congress at age thirty, and his experiences there during the Vietnam War and the Civil Rights era. We also get his unique perspective as a cabinet-level member of the Nixon and Ford administrations, as CEO of two Fortune companies, and as a special envoy to the Middle East for President Reagan. He includes candid observations on the differences of views within the Pentagon and with other members of President George W.
Knowns and unknowns
David C. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know.
Classification of Unknowns and Risk Scenarios
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. We geophysicists and geologists are generally not eager to compare ourselves with politicians. We are, after all, scientists who come to an understanding of nature from evidence of what is true rather from what we want to be true.
Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk pp Cite as. While we have introduced risk and its mathematics, probability, its history and impact on modern finance and financial risk management, all areas which are generally well known, the need to broaden the discussion to include a wider range of the unknown requires a significant departure from previously used methods. In particular, we need to define and characterise types of the unknown, given that some unknowns are merely random, some are capable of deep and possibly quantitative analytical treatment, while others will be far from accessible.
According to a recent LinkedIn survey, Millennials are twice as likely to switch jobs vs Gen X in the first 5 years after graduating college. And alongside major shifts in technology and business practices is growing perceived danger in the workforce. Plenty of resources are available for helping you pick a linear career path. Their goal was to de-risk their project by shifting more risks from the unknown into the known territory. There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. Knowns and Unknowns, at its core, is a problem-solving tool for complex situations.
"There are known knowns" is a phrase from a response United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we Download as PDF · Printable version.
Department of Defense DoD news briefing on February 12, , about the lack of evidence linking the government of Iraq with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups. Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know.
Risk is managed through developing design strategies that accommodate the least common denominator. Design should deal with any unforeseen changes through a neutral approach to the workplace. At the same time, organizations are facing the need to develop workplace design strategies that are more relevant to hiring and retaining their critical workforce. In the business environment, competition for talent is fierce and migrates across industries. Anticipatory design offers strategies for how to approach the development of a workplace that addresses these needs.
During the U. Department of Defense News briefing on February 12, , Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was asked to discuss if there was any evidence to indicate that Iraq had attempted to or was willing to supply terrorists with weapons of mass destruction.
Молодой священник, причащавший Беккера, смотрел на него с неодобрением. Ему было понятно нетерпение иностранца, но все-таки зачем рваться без очереди. Беккер наклонил голову и тщательно разжевывал облатку. Он почувствовал, что сзади что-то произошло, возникло какое-то замешательство, и подумал о человеке, у которого купил пиджак.
На улице еще темно, - засмеялся .